Oil rallies to 3-week high on Putin freeze comments - Sean Seshadri Tampa

Oil prices rose to a three-week high during European hours on Monday, adding to last week's strong gains on growing expectations that global oil producers will find a way to cap output at a meeting scheduled for the end of this month.

Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London rallied to an intraday peak of $47.72 a barrel, the most since November 2. It was last at $47.60 by 4:00AM ET (09:00GMT), up 69 cents, or 1.47%.

London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of $2.11, or 4.5%, last week, after posting losses in each of the past four weeks.

Elsewhere, crude oil for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 69 cents, or 1.49%, to $47.05 a barrel, after touching $47.20 earlier, a level not seen since November 1.

Last week, New York-traded oil futures rose $2.28, or 5%, after three straight weekly declines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees a “high probability” that an agreement to curb oil production will be reached at a meeting later this month.

Speaking at a news conference in Lima after an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Sunday, Putin said Russia is willing to freeze its crude oil output at current levels.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said late Sunday the country plans to offer three new proposals this week aimed at bolstering the unity of the group.

Additionally, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said it’s “highly probable” members will reach a consensus, according to comments published by the country’s Shana news service.

Speculation that OPEC is moving closer toward finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit oil output mounted amid reports that member countries proposed Iran cap its oil output at 3.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in a meeting on Friday. Tehran has previously said it would accept a freeze at between 4.0 and 4.2 million bpd.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

NYMEX crude trades weaker in Asia on U.S. inventories, OPEC awaited - Sean Seshadri

U.S. Crude prices fell in Asia on Thursday as investors gear up for an expected make or break meeting at the end of the month on plans by OPEC to curb OPEC as inventory builds in the U.S. gain attention.

Crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.26% to $45.45 a barrel. Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London was last quoted at $46.46 a barrel, up 0.22%.

Overnight, oil prices added to losses during North American hours on Wednesday, falling to the lowest levels of the session after data showed that crude supplies rose the third straight week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 5.3 million barrels in the week ended November 11. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock gain of 1.5 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply increase of 3.7 million barrels.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, increased by 691,000 barrels last week, the EIA said. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 490.3 million barrels as of last week, which the EIA considered to be “historically high levels for this time of year”.

The report also showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels, compared to expectations for a decline of 0.4 million barrels.

For distillate inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a gain of 0.3 million barrels.

Oil traders continued to weigh prospects of a coordinated production cut among major global oil producers.

An informal meeting of OPEC members is likely to be convened in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Friday to build consensus over decisions taken by the group in September, an Algerian energy source said on Wednesday.

Prices rallied nearly 6% on Tuesday amid reports that several OPEC members were engaged in a last-minute push to overcome divisions between the cartel’s biggest producers.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The cartel pumped 33.64 million barrels of crude per day in October. The figures added to skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production.

The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

Gold prices fall slightly in Asia on expected Fed rate hike next month - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices drifted lower in early Asia on Wednesday as the market gears up for remarks this week from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as expectations for a December rate hike remain strong.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.05% to $1,227.40 a troy ounce.

Earlier, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Tuesday said liquidity conditions in markets have changed as a result of tighter capital requirements enacted after the global financial crisis, but said the benefits of enhanced financial stability may outweigh the potential costs.

Overnight, gold futures erased overnight gains in North American trading on Tuesday, falling back towards a six-month low after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October, boosting optimism over the health of the economy.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales rose 0.8% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.6% increase. September retail sales increased 1.0%, whose figure was revised from an initial 0.6% rise.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, increased 0.8% in October, compared to forecasts for an advance of 0.5%. Core sales in September were revised to a 0.7% advance from the prior 0.5% gain.

A separate report showed that an index of New York-area manufacturing conditions turned positive in November for the first time in four months. The Empire Fed index rose 8.3 points to 1.5, on a scale where any reading above zero indicates improving conditions, the New York Fed said Tuesday.

The data comes after reports earlier this month showed a rapidly tightening labor market and signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector, underscoring the economy's strength at the start of the fourth quarter.

Market analysts warned that the outlook for gold remains cloudy in the near-term. Prices of the yellow metal are down more than 6% over the past week amid optimism that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates.

NYMEX, Brent mixed in Asia as Chinese industrial, retail data weaker - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices reversed course and fell in Asia on Monday as industrial output and retail sales data from China came in a tad weaker than expected.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December ell 0.28% to $43.29 a barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January gained 0.34% to $44.70.

China said fixed asset investment for October rose 8.3%, beating the 8.2% rise seen year-on-year and industrial production gained 6.1%, below the expected 6.2% rise seen and retail sales increased 10.0%, below the 10.7% increase seen.

Earlier, Japan reported third quarter GDP jumped 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and at a 2.2% pace year-on-year, handily beating expected gains of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively.

Oil futures tumbled to multi-week lows on Friday after OPEC reported that its crude production rose to its highest level on record and pointed to a larger surplus next year, despite an agreement to potentially cut output.

In its monthly market report published Friday, OPEC said that output from its own 14 members increased by 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 33.64 million in October, with
Nigeria, Libya and Iraq blamed for the increase.

With demand for OPEC crude in 2017 expected to average 32.69 million bpd, the report indicates there will now be an average surplus of 950,000 bpd if OPEC keeps output steady. Last month's report pointed to an 800,000-bpd surplus.

The bearish report came one day after the International Energy Agency warned that the market risks running another surplus in 2017 without an output cut from OPEC.

The IEA said global supply rose by 800,000 bpd in October to 97.8 million, led by record OPEC output and rising production from non-OPEC members such as Russia, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan.

The Paris-based organization kept its demand growth forecast for 2016 at 1.2 million bpd and expects consumption to increase at the same pace next year, having gradually slowed from a five-year peak of 1.8 million bpd in 2015.

The reports added to skepticism over the implementation of a planned deal by OPEC to limit production.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The possibility that producers could walk away empty-handed from the November meeting looms large after Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Libya all signaled they might not take part in the proposed production cut deal. Russia’s unclear stance is also fueling uncertainty.

Prices stayed lower after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 2 to 452, the 21st increase out of the last 24 weeks.

Prices were also weighed by evidence of rising crude supplies in the U.S., where weekly supply data on Wednesday showed a larger than expected build in oil stockpiles.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that crude oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week to 485.0 million, which the EIA considered to be “historically high levels for this time of year”.

After a historic week in which U.S. politics dominated market sentiment, investors will get back to the business of watching the Federal Reserve and economic data in the coming days as expectations mount for a December rate hike.

Meanwhile, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Gold prices hold gains in Asia after China trade data disappoints - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices held gains on Tuesday in Asia in the wake of weaker than expected trade data from China and as cautious trade ruled ahead of the U.S. presidential election and note increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.35% to $1,283.85 a troy ounce.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery gained 0.40% to $18.223 a troy ounce. Copper futures however dropped 0.22% to $2.307 a pound. Copper futures have been well-supported in recent sessions as traders bet that the global economy may be gaining momentum after a long period of sluggish growth.

In China, the trade balance for October came in a surplus of $49.06 billion, narrower than the $51.07 billion seen as exports and imports missed expectations as well. China is the world's top buyer of copper and second largest gold importer.

Overnight, gold prices were sharply lower during North American hours on Monday, as demand for safe-haven assets ebbed after the FBI said no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Hillary Clinton in the investigation of her emails just two days before the U.S. election.

The news lifted a cloud over Clinton's presidential campaign and possibly blunted momentum for rival Donald Trump.

Markets have tended to see Clinton as the status quo candidate, and news favoring her bid often boosts risk appetite, while weighing on assets perceived as safe.

Prices rallied to a more than one-month high of $1,309.30 last week, as polls showed a tightening U.S. presidential race.

Meanwhile, markets are also expecting a Federal Reserve rate hike next month after a government report on Friday showed solid jobs gains and a rise in wages in October. Investors were pricing in a 78% chance of a rate increase in December, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three - Sean Seshadri trading Tampa

U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Democrat Hillary Clinton's plan for Syria would "lead to World War Three," because of the potential for conflict with military forces from nuclear-armed Russia.

In an interview focused largely on foreign policy, Trump said defeating Islamic State is a higher priority than persuading Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, playing down a long-held goal of U.S. policy.

Trump questioned how Clinton would negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin after demonizing him; blamed President Barack Obama for a downturn in U.S. relations with the Philippines under its new president, Rodrigo Duterte; bemoaned a lack of Republican unity behind his candidacy, and said he would easily win the election if the party leaders would support him.

“If we had party unity, we couldn’t lose this election to Hillary Clinton,” he said.

On Syria's civil war, Trump said Clinton could drag the United States into a world war with a more aggressive posture toward resolving the conflict.

Clinton has called for the establishment of a no-fly zone and “safe zones” on the ground to protect non-combatants. Some analysts fear that protecting those zones could bring the United States into direct conflict with Russian fighter jets.

"What we should do is focus on ISIS. We should not be focusing on Syria," said Trump as he dined on fried eggs and sausage at his Trump National Doral golf resort. "You’re going to end up in World War Three over Syria if we listen to Hillary Clinton.

"You’re not fighting Syria any more, you’re fighting Syria, Russia and Iran, all right? Russia is a nuclear country, but a country where the nukes work as opposed to other countries that talk," he said.

Clinton's campaign dismissed the criticism, noting that both Republican and Democratic national security experts have denounced Trump as unfit to be commander-in-chief.

"Once again, he is parroting Putin's talking points and playing to Americans' fears, all while refusing to lay out any plans of his own for defeating ISIS or alleviating humanitarian suffering in Syria," Clinton spokesman Jesse Lehrich said in a statement.

Trump said Assad is much stronger now than he was three years ago and said getting Assad to leave power was less important than defeating Islamic State.

"Assad is secondary, to me, to ISIS," he said.

OBAMA FOCUSED 'ON HIS GOLF GAME'

On Russia, Trump again knocked Clinton's handling of U.S.-Russian relations while secretary of state and said her harsh criticism of Putin raised questions about "how she is going to go back and negotiate with this man who she has made to be so evil," if she wins the presidency.

On the deterioration of ties with the Philippines, Trump aimed his criticism at Obama, saying the president "wants to focus on his golf game" rather than engage with world leaders.

Since assuming office, Duterte has expressed open hostility toward the United States, rejecting criticism of his violent anti-drug clampdown, using an expletive to describe Obama and telling the United States not to treat his country "like a dog with a leash."

The Obama administration has expressed optimism that the two countries can remain firm allies.

Trump said Duterte's latest comments showed "a lack of respect for our country."

The interview comes two weeks before the Nov. 8 election, with Trump trailing badly in the polls. He repeated his assertion that the "media is rigging the polls" and said his supporters were upset with Republican Party leadership.

"The people are very angry with the leadership of this party, because this is an election that we will win 100 percent if we had support from the top. I think we’re going to win it anyway."

He said if he wins he would not consider putting Democrats in his cabinet but would work with them on legislation.

Brent, NYMEX weaker in Asia as oversupply views dominate - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices held weaker in Asia Monday as investors booked profits as doubts grow that efforts by key producers to crub supply will result in significant impact on availability in the absence of stronger demand cues.

U.S. crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.61% to $50.54 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange eased 0.50% to $51.51 a barrel.

Last week, oil futures reversed early losses to end higher on Friday, despite a stronger dollar after Russia’s energy minister said an oil output freeze agreement was necessary to help stabilize the market.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Friday expressed interest in cooperating with an OPEC production cut and said that he would make proposals to his Saudi Arabian counterpart at a meeting of Gulf Arab oil ministers over the weekend.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced late last month that it has a preliminary plan to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day.

OPEC is expected to complete details of the proposed production cut at its next official meeting on November 30, but without Russia’s participation the plan could fail.

Some analysts feel the pullback indicates that the recent oil price rally is unsustainable, with global production continuing to outpace demand. In the week ahead, oil traders will focus on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.